Andy Burnham, Britain's likely next prime minister, sets out his stall as Starmer steps aside

Britain is on course for its seventh prime minister in a decade. Sir Keir Starmer announced on 22 June that he would resign as Labour leader and prime minister, ending a months-long revolt inside his party and clearing the path for Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor who had returned to the House of Commons four days earlier. Burnham, the runaway favourite to succeed him, has wasted little time setting out the priorities of a government he does not yet lead.

Starmer made the announcement outside 10 Downing Street, bowing to pressure that had built since Labour's heavy losses in the May local elections and the surge of Nigel Farage's Reform UK. He will remain in office until the party chooses a successor.

I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept that answer with good grace.

How the handover unfolded

The trigger was a by-election. On 18 June, Burnham won the seat of Makerfield in Greater Manchester with 54.8% of the vote and a majority of more than 9,200 over Reform UK, a stronger result than polls had predicted, on a turnout of 58.8% — the highest at a parliamentary by-election since 2019. The contest had been engineered for him: the sitting Labour MP, Josh Simons, stood down so that Burnham, who held no seat in Parliament, could re-enter the Commons and become eligible to lead the party.

Under a timetable set by Labour's National Executive Committee, nominations open on 9 July and close on 16 July, with a new leader expected to be in place before Parliament returns in September. Burnham is so far the only declared candidate; his most prominent potential rival, the former health secretary Wes Streeting, has said he will not stand. If no challenger emerges, Burnham could take office within weeks. “I will put myself forward as part of this process,” he told Sky News.

What a Burnham government would do

Burnham, 56, is a familiar figure in British politics. He was MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, served as health secretary under Gordon Brown, and has run Greater Manchester since 2017, winning three mayoral elections. He twice sought the Labour leadership, in 2010 and 2015, and lost both times.

His pitch is built on what he calls “Manchesterism” — the argument that the devolved, place-based model he has used in Greater Manchester should be scaled up to the country as a whole. Commentators and his own writing describe an agenda that pairs pro-business growth with greater public control over essential services. His stated priorities include:

• economic renewal and rebuilding public trust in politics;
• deeper devolution of powers and money from Whitehall to England's regions;
• a greater public stake in housing, energy, water and transport;
• constitutional reform, including replacing the House of Lords with an elected chamber of the nations and regions.

He has also tried to frame the moment in stark terms, warning that a failure to rebuild trust risks a more polarised politics. “Politics is getting more polarized,” he has said, cautioning that Britain risks drifting “towards the politics of the United States of America.” Farage, whose party finished second in Makerfield, has dismissed the manner of Burnham's likely ascent, arguing that a single by-election gives him no mandate to govern the country.

What it means for Europe — and Luxembourg

For the European Union, and for the Luxembourg communities with a stake in Britain, the most important signal is continuity. Burnham has stepped back from earlier remarks favouring EU membership; in May he said he was not proposing that the UK rejoin, aligning himself with Starmer's position that Britain will not re-enter the single market or the customs union. Analysts expect him to continue the incremental rapprochement already under way — a veterinary and agri-food agreement, closer cooperation on electricity and carbon markets, and regular attendance at European Political Community summits — rather than reopen the Brexit settlement.

That cautious course matters in Luxembourg, home to a financial sector closely tied to the City of London and to a long-established British community. Official statistics recorded 3,924 British nationals living in the Grand Duchy at the start of 2023, a figure held down by the many who took Luxembourg citizenship after Brexit. A government that keeps negotiating, but does not lurch in either direction, offers a measure of predictability to expatriates and to firms managing cross-Channel business — even as the larger question of Britain's long-term place in Europe stays unresolved.

For now, the formalities come first. Until Labour completes its contest, Starmer remains prime minister and Burnham an MP of a few days' standing — a leader-in-waiting setting out a programme he must still be handed the power to deliver.